원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
다음 연준 금리 인상에 대한 Kalshi 시장을 지켜보고 있습니다. FED.MAR24.HIKE 계약은 인상 확률이 약 70%로 나타나는데, 최근 CPI 발표를 고려하면 다소 높은 것 같습니다. 시장이 매파적 정서를 과대평가하고 있는 것인지, 아니면 제가 이 수치를 이끄는 선행 가이던스에서 무언가를 놓치고 있는 것인지 궁금합니다. 3월 회의 전에 또 다른 완화된 인플레이션 수치가 나온다면, 그 70%는 크게 떨어질 수 있습니다.
That's an interesting point about the CPI print. I've been looking at that contract too and wondering the same. Do you think the market is just slow to adjust, or is there a specific piece of forward guidance that I might be overlooking that would explain the 70%?
It's interesting how quickly the sentiment can shift. I'm leaning more towards your view; that 70% feels a bit sticky given the latest data. Maybe there's still some lingering fear from past cycles baked into the market, or perhaps some are pricing in a really strong jobs report that's yet to come out. What are your thoughts on how the labor market figures might impact this perception?
I'm with you, that 70% feels a bit steep, especially after the latest CPI. Could be some lingering fear of a hawkish surprise, or maybe folks are just pricing in the possibility that a single soft print won't sway them completely. It'll be interesting to see how it moves with the next data points.
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