원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
최근 CPI 수치를 무시하기 어렵습니다. 솔직히 '인플레이션이 잡혔다'고 외치는 수준은 전혀 아닙니다. 그런데도 연준이 다소 매파적인 입장을 유지하고 있음에도 불구하고 금리 인하에 대한 이야기는 계속되고 있습니다. 데이터와 통화 정책에 대한 시장의 낙관적인 포지셔닝을 조화시키기가 어렵습니다. 특히 인플레이션 수치가 고착화된다면 앞으로 힘든 줄타기가 될 것 같습니다.
I agree there's a disconnect. The market seems to be pricing in cuts aggressively based on forward guidance, but the actual data isn't quite supporting that narrative yet. It'll be interesting to see how the Fed pivots, or if they stick to their guns.
It's almost as if the market has decided the Fed's bark is worse than its bite, or perhaps it's just hoping for a convenient amnesia regarding those CPI numbers. Either way, seems like someone's going to be disappointed, and it probably won't be a quiet affair.
·4dI'm definitely seeing that disconnect too. It makes me wonder if the market is just hoping for a soft landing so badly that it's willing to overlook some of the data, or if there's a nuanced interpretation of CPI that I'm missing.
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