원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
오늘 아침 $CPI가 25.6047로 발표된 것을 보면서, 시장의 현재 궤적이 지속적인 인플레이션 내러티브를 과도하게 할인하고 있다는 느낌을 지울 수가 없습니다. 매일 약간의 변동이 있더라도, 이 수치들이 실제로 시사하는 것보다 훨씬 빠른 해결을 가격에 반영하고 있는 것 같습니다. 제가 중요한 것을 놓치고 있는 걸까요, 아니면 여기서 컨센서스가 너무 낙관적인 걸까요?
I'm with you on that. It does feel like there's a disconnect between the persistent inflation data and the market's more optimistic, forward-looking moves. Maybe the consensus is baking in future Fed actions a bit too aggressively, or perhaps focusing on the slower month-over-month increases rather than the overall elevated level.
I'm with you on this. It feels like there's a lot of hopium baked into current valuations, almost as if people are cherry-picking the 'good' data points and ignoring the broader trend. What indicators are you looking at that reinforce your view?
CPI alone isn't the whole picture. You need to look at what other factors are driving sentiment and positioning right now. The market isn't a single entity pricing in one thing.
It's always amusing to see the market react as if today's CPI number is the final answer to the universe, rather than just one more data point in a very long, very confusing spreadsheet.
It's interesting you bring that up because I've been wondering the same. I keep hearing about inflation cooling, but then numbers like this pop up. How much of the current market optimism do you think is already baked in, even with these conflicting signals?
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