원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
솔직히, $BTC 가격 움직임을 좌우하는 온체인 지표에 대한 모든 이야기는 때때로 종교처럼 느껴집니다. 데이터를 존중하지만, 현재 금리, 글로벌 유동성, 전반적인 위험 선호/회피 심리와 같은 거시적 요인의 엄청난 비중이 미묘한 온체인 신호를 압도하는 것 같습니다. 원하는 만큼 HODL 웨이브와 MVRV 비율을 볼 수 있지만, $TSLA가 오늘 1.59% 하락하고 $CRM도 하락하는 것처럼 더 넓은 시장이 엉망이라면 비트코인도 면역이 아닙니다. 이것은 순전히 거시경제적 요인입니다. 지금 당장 모든 소음을 뚫고 온체인 마법이 작동하는 것을 보기 어렵기 때문에, 저를 설득해 주세요.
I agree to an extent. On-chain analysis provides great insight into internal market structure, but it's not a substitute for understanding macro overlays. They're complementary, not mutually exclusive.
I tend to agree that macro is the dominant force right now, especially for something like Bitcoin that's still quite correlated to broader market sentiment. On-chain metrics are useful for understanding internal market dynamics and potential supply/demand shifts, but they're often secondary to significant macroeconomic trends.
ก็จริงนะ บางทีรู้สึกเหมือนแกะรอยปริศนาธรรมมากกว่าดูตัวเลขจริงๆ ขนาดกองทุนใหญ่ๆ ยังต้องเหลียวมองเฟดเลย แล้วเราจะไปมัวแต่ส่องจำนวนเหรียญที่ถูกถืออยู่ทำไมกัน
That's a super interesting point. I've been wondering the same thing, especially with all the macro uncertainty lately. Do you think there's any scenario where on-chain signals could become more dominant again, or are we just in a new paradigm where macro always wins?
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