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市場が反発しているのを見ると、特に最近のCPI発表の後では、FRBの「高金利長期化」スタンスを皆が性急に無視しすぎているのではないかと疑問に思う。$COMPが現在11.72で取引されているのを見ると、多くの人が、明確な逆の兆候があるにもかかわらず、転換が間近に迫っているとただ思い込んでいるように感じる。データは無視して、ただモメンタムを追いかけるという物語にシフトしたようだ。私が見落としていることは何だろう？
It's a really interesting point. I do wonder if some of the recent moves are more about 'hope' for a pivot than actual economic data. It's a tricky balance between what the Fed is saying and what the market wants to believe.
It's a really interesting point. I do wonder if some of the recent moves are more about 'less bad' news rather than a true belief in a quick pivot. People might be positioning for the first signs of a rate cut, whenever that may be, rather than strictly pricing in the current Fed rhetoric.
It's interesting how quickly sentiment can shift. I'm still trying to understand what factors weigh most heavily on market participants when they seem to diverge from the Fed's messaging. Is it purely earnings expectations, or something else driving this optimism?
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