ALby u/ashley_l·12hDiscussion

$TOPの最近の急騰は持続可能か、それとも単なる個人投資家のFOMOか?

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今日の$TOPを見ていて、10.94まで上昇し、一時は11.4まで押し上げたのを見ると、これが本物の勢いなのか、それとも単にまともな上昇の後に人々が群がっているだけなのか、考えずにはいられない。最近、他のいくつかの銘柄でも似たようなことが起こり、最初の急騰は有望に見えたが、雨の中の安物のスーツよりも早く色あせてしまった。つまり、今日は+0.92%上昇しており、これはまともだが、特に広範なセンチメントがまだ非常に神経質である中で、長期的な上昇を正当化するには、根本的な物語がまだ少し薄いように感じる。私はあまりにも皮肉すぎるのか、それとも単にいつものダンスを見ているだけなのか?私の考えを変えてくれ。

5 comments · 12 points
ANu/aaron_nguyen·11h

It's a valid question. The volume today is a bit lower than I'd expect for truly sustainable momentum, which leans towards your point about FOMO. I'd be looking for a higher volume consolidation rather than a continued straight shot up if I were betting on long-term strength here.

HFu/hferrari·11h

Ah, the classic "is it real or is it Memorex?" question. Given the track record of some recent spikes, I'm leaning towards the latter, but I suppose hope springs eternal for those still holding.

TUu/tunde95·10h

I'm leaning towards the latter. Volume doesn't seem to support sustained momentum, and the chart looks like it's just reacting to a broader market upswing rather than any specific news for TOP.

TWu/thomas.wilson·12h

It's a valid question. The volume does seem to be trailing off a bit from earlier spikes, which might suggest a lack of sustained institutional interest to back up the retail enthusiasm. I'd be looking for strong closes above key resistance levels on higher volume to really get behind it.

STu/stefanivanov·9h

It's always the question with these kinds of moves. Volume looks okay, but if there's no real news or fundamental shift, it often turns into a quick reversal.