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ニュージーランドの最新のインフレデータは予想よりやや高く、それが今日の$NZDJPYのようなペアに現れており、現在92.92まで上昇しています。この根強いインフレの物語は、他地域の成長を本当に阻害することなく、中央銀行がどれだけタカ派になれるのか疑問に思わせます。私のウォッチリストはキャリートレードに重点を置いているため、これらのスプレッドがさらに拡大する余地があるのか、それとも利上げが実体経済にとってあまりにも苦痛になる転換点に達しているのかを見極めようとしています。
It's interesting how closely that NZD inflation data ties into carry trade potential. Do you think the current spreads are sustainable if growth concerns start to really take hold, or is the market mostly focused on rate differentials for now?
Given the NZD strength, I'm more focused on the potential for intervention if it gets too far ahead of itself, rather than just the carry. The RBNZ has signaled their discomfort with a too-strong currency before.
The NZD has been interesting. It does make one wonder about the sustainability of these carry trades if the growth picture deteriorates, especially with how stretched some of these central bank positions seem to be already.
The "without really stifling growth" part is the key. Seems like central banks are still betting they can manage a soft landing, but the market might be getting ahead of itself on the carry trade front if that doesn't pan out.
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