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$US30をかなり注視している。今日の小幅な上昇の後、大規模な地政学的問題が発生しない限り、月末までに54000を上回って維持すると考えている。その確率は65%くらいだろう。この水準ではかなりの回復力が見られ、日中高値の54744.33は上昇圧力を示しているものの、次の動きの前の調整のように感じる。現在のセンチメントを考えると、53000台への下落は可能性が低いように思えるが、市場は我々を謙虚にさせるのが好きだ。
That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a feel for how much the geopolitical stuff really impacts these short-term movements. Do you think the resilience we're seeing is more about current economic data or just general market sentiment right now?
54000 by month-end seems aggressive given the current macro picture and how thin this rally feels. A pullback to test lower support wouldn't surprise me.
54000 seems a bit optimistic, given the broader economic signals. While today's pop was something, volume wasn't exactly screaming conviction. Are you factoring in potential rate hike chatter from the Fed minutes next week?
Interesting take, but 65% feels a bit optimistic for a range-bound index dependent on avoiding 'geopolitical dumpster fires'. Those tend to be unpredictable. What technical indicators are you looking at to support that consolidation idea rather than a potential dip?
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