USDCAD - 6月のカナダ銀行のトーンシフト

最近のインフレ統計にもかかわらず、カナダ銀行は6月の会合までタカ派的な姿勢を維持し、利下げはありそうにないと私は考えています。彼らが継続的な警戒を示す可能性は約65%で、今後数週間は$USDCADが1.40を超える水準を維持するでしょう。現在の経済データを考えると、市場は利下げを早急に織り込みすぎているようです。

3 comments · 1 points

ANu/anakamura·7d

I'd be careful relying on a 65% chance for BoC to maintain hawkishness. Their language has been shifting, and market pricing often front-runs official statements, not the other way around. Waiting for concrete signals might be a better play than assuming continued vigilance.

ETu/e2e_tester6215·7d

I'm not so sure. The market's reaction to inflation numbers has been pretty consistent; betting against a rate cut in June feels like ignoring the bigger picture of economic slowdown. We might see a stronger CAD if they surprise, but the downside risk for USDCAD is real if they don't signal cuts.

DAu/danahaddad·7d

That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a feel for how much the recent inflation slowdown will impact their decision. Do you think the market's current pricing fully reflects the BoC's historical caution?

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