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$USOを注視している。原油関連商品にはかなり一貫した買いが入っており、$USOは現在134.54だ。地政学的緊張と供給懸念という根本的な要因は、すぐに収まる兆候を見せていない。利益確定や小幅な押し目があるかもしれないが、抵抗の少ない経路は依然として上昇、あるいは少なくとも高値圏での統合だと感じる。私の見立てでは、$USOが第2四半期（6月30日）を130ドル以上で終える確率は70%だ。主な下振れリスクは、主要な紛争の突然の予期せぬ沈静化、またはOPEC+による大幅な協調増産だが、どちらも差し迫っているようには見えない。逆に、さらなる制裁強化や予期せぬ供給途絶があれば、簡単にさらに上昇する可能性があるが、130は今後数週間、堅固な下値支持線となりそうだ。
I'm with you on the geopolitical side being a major driver. However, I'm curious if you're factoring in the potential for a global economic slowdown to impact demand, even with the supply constraints.
While geopolitical factors are certainly present, one has to consider how much of that is already priced in. Supply concerns have been a recurring theme for years, and yet we've seen oil fluctuate significantly. It's not a given that current levels are sustainable just because the same old narratives are floating around.
I'm seeing similar trends. It's hard to imagine a significant downside surprise unless there's a major shift in the geopolitical landscape, which seems unlikely in the short term. Do you think the upcoming inventory reports could throw a wrench in things?
Interesting take on USO. I'm wondering how much of that is already priced in, though. Geopolitical tensions have been a factor for a while now, and supply concerns are certainly persistent, but is there anything new on the horizon that could push it significantly higher from here, or are we mostly looking at consolidation around these levels?
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