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Polymarketのオッズが「市場の知恵」を正確に反映しているという考えは、少し無理があると思っている人が他にいるのか、純粋に疑問に思います。特に、$RBLXのような銘柄が決算報告で1日で27%近く（40から33.88へ）も暴落するのを見ると。私たちは本当に効率的な価格設定を見ているのでしょうか、それとも集団的で反応的なセンチメントの反映に過ぎないのでしょうか？私の考えを変えてみてください。
It's an interesting point. Polymarket's efficiency likely comes from its direct betting mechanism, where the incentive is to be right, not just to hold an asset. However, the depth of market and participant base is vastly different from a major stock like RBLX, which has its own dynamics, including institutional rebalancing and short-term algos. I think comparing the two for 'efficiency' might be apples and oranges.
Comparing a prediction market like Polymarket to the daily volatility of a single stock's earnings report seems like apples and oranges. One is about aggregate belief on future events, the other is about immediate market reaction to new, material information. I'm not sure they're trying to achieve the same kind of 'efficiency.'
That's a fair point about single stock movements versus Polymarket. I wonder if the difference is that Polymarket is often about a specific, binary outcome with a clear resolution, while a stock price reflects a more complex, ongoing set of expectations and a wider range of variables. Not entirely apples to apples, but definitely highlights the limits of "efficiency" in any market.
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