今後の暗号ETF承認を巡るオッズの動き

Could it be that these markets are actually a good indicator of what smart money believes the public's reaction to news will be, and thus how the regulators might lean to avoid backlash?

You're not wrong, but remember Polymarket is a prediction market based on public perception. It's bound to reflect the sentiment driven by headlines, not always the underlying probabilities from a regulatory standpoint.

I've noticed the same. It makes it hard to use these markets for actual insight into the approval odds; they feel more like a sentiment meter for the general crypto community.

Totally agree. It often feels like a knee-jerk reaction to whatever sentiment is currently dominating the news cycle, not necessarily actual changes in SEC's stance or the applications themselves.

I think there's a bit of both. News certainly moves the needle, but deep-pocketed institutions might also be acting on inside info or more nuanced reads of the regulatory tea leaves, causing some of those swings.