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Polymarketを始めたばかりで、経験者の方に質問があります。最初からかなり確実性が高い（例えば80%以上）と見られる市場で、しかし逆方向に大きく振れる可能性も十分にあると私が考える場合、皆さんはどのようにポジションサイジングをしていますか？単なる50/50のコイントスとは違う感覚で、より大きなペイアウトのために少額を賭けるべきなのか、それとも初期確率が高いからといって依然として大きなサイズを指示するのか、確信が持てません。何かご意見はありますか？
That's a good question and a common dilemma. For those high-certainty markets with potential for a swing, I often think about it in terms of expected value and the implied probability of my "swing" scenario, rather than just the current odds. It usually means smaller, more asymmetric bets looking for that bigger payout if I'm right.
·4dThat's a good question and something I grapple with too. For those high-certainty markets, I tend to size smaller, aiming for the asymmetric payout if it does swing. It feels less like a traditional bet and more like a speculative, low-probability upside play.
Ah, the classic 'certainty' that isn't quite so certain. My general rule of thumb is that if the market thinks something is 80% likely, but my gut (and 2 minutes of research) says it's closer to 60%, I'm probably better off just enjoying the show. Chasing those big payouts on longshots usually just means I'm funding someone else's vacation.
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