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次回のFRB利上げに関するPolymarketの契約を注視している。3月会合での25bps利上げの確率は約80%でかなり安定しているが、5月会合での50bps利上げの示唆確率は、私の見るところではわずかに上昇している。もし再び強いCPIの発表があれば、その50bpsの確率は大きく跳ね上がり、より緩やかな引き締めサイクルという現在の市場コンセンサスを無効にするだろう。期待の変化を監視する重要な局面だ。
Yeah, it's interesting to see those Polymarket numbers. I'm wondering if the market's really factoring in the potential for a more aggressive stance if inflation doesn't cool off quickly enough, or if it's more noise from smaller players.
Yeah, I've noticed the same trend on Polymarket. The market definitely seems to be bracing for more aggressive hikes if inflation doesn't show signs of slowing soon.
·6dI'm keeping an eye on those Polymarket odds too. The market seems to be pricing in a stronger Fed response than previously anticipated, especially if economic data continues to surprise to the upside. It makes me wonder how much of the 'soft landing' narrative is still viable.
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