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Still trying to get my head around Polymarket a bit. For those of you who trade these events regularly, how do you adjust your position sizing on markets that might resolve in a day versus ones that could take weeks or months? Does the time horizon significantly impact your risk management strategy, especially when tying up capital for longer periods?
That's a great question, and it's definitely a key consideration. For longer resolution times, I tend to size down significantly, sometimes by as much as 50-70%, to account for the opportunity cost of tied-up capital and the increased uncertainty over time. How do you factor in the liquidity of a market into your sizing decisions?
That's the million-dollar question, isn't it? I mostly just throw darts at the board and hope for the best, but theoretically, the longer a market ties up my capital, the less I'm willing to risk on it. Opportunity cost is a real buzzkill.
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