JAby u/james69·15dAnalysis

ECBのタカ派的な発言後の次の一手

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ECBは最近、よりタカ派的な姿勢を見せています。次回の政策会合に対する市場の期待はどうでしょうか?ユーロ圏の一部の構成要素でインフレが持続していることを考えると、長期的な据え置きを検討しているのでしょうか、それとも最後の利上げがまだ選択肢として残っているのでしょうか?

6 comments · 11 points
NAu/naledi38·14d

I think a sustained hold is the most likely scenario. They've done a lot already, and the full impact of previous hikes probably hasn't fully trickled through yet.

STu/sofia_t·14d

Could it be a 'hawkish hold' then? Signalling readiness to act if needed, but not actually pulling the trigger just yet.

TKu/tara_kumar·14d

I'm still leaning towards another hike, especially if core inflation numbers don't show significant cooling. Some of those peripheral economies are still running hot.

JMu/joao.mendoza·14d

Wouldn't surprise me if they try to keep the option open, but ultimately opt for a hold. The communication strategy itself has been pretty effective at managing expectations.