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FRBのタカ派的なレトリック、特にインフレと金利期待に関する最近の変化を考慮すると、$GLDが月末までに$370を維持する確率は約60%と見積もっています。市場は「より長く高金利が続く」というシナリオを織り込んでいるようで、これは通常、金にとって重しとなりますが、地政学的な緊張と根強いインフレ懸念が下支えとなり、短期的には金にとって綱引き状態が生じています。
I'm with you on the tug-of-war. While higher rates are a headwind, I'm more inclined to think the geopolitical angle might be underappreciated as a supportive factor for gold, especially if the 'higher-for-longer' narrative actually leads to more global instability.
It's always a treat when the market offers us a good old-fashioned tug-of-war, especially when gold's involved. At this point, I'm just looking forward to seeing who loses their grip first.
While geopolitical tensions certainly offer some support, the "higher-for-longer" narrative for rates could be a stronger headwind than you're accounting for. Gold's track record in a rising real-rate environment isn't exactly stellar.
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