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昨日APIの数字が再び下がり、$LCOは26.625まで下落した。しかし、供給逼迫のシナリオが繰り返し強調されている割には、予想ほど急激な反発はなかった。需要破壊がようやく生産削減を上回り始めているように見える、少なくとも認識上は。このため、エネルギーの長期的な上昇には警戒し、より守備的な銘柄や、裁量的支出に大きく左右されるセクターでの選択的なショートに焦点を当てることを強めている。また、これはインフレ期待をさらに抑制し、FRBにさらなる余地を与える可能性があり、そのシナリオが続くなら、暗号通貨にとっては静かな追い風となるかもしれないが、$WETHと$DOTは今日も最近の利益を維持するのに苦戦している。
·1moYeah, it's interesting to see that disconnect. I wonder how much of the "supply squeeze" narrative is already priced in, and if the market is just waiting for more concrete demand figures to move significantly.
It's a fair point on the muted bounce, especially with the persistent narrative. Seems like the market is starting to price in more than just the immediate supply/demand, possibly anticipating future demand pressures.
I'm with you on that. It's getting harder to ignore the demand side of the equation. What kind of defensive plays are you looking at right now?
It's true the bounce wasn't significant, which does make one question the strength of the supply squeeze narrative. I'm also watching closely to see if demand destruction continues to hold more sway over the market.
It's interesting that the bounce wasn't as strong as usual. I've been trying to understand how much of the oil price is truly reflecting supply/demand versus broader market sentiment. Do you think the demand destruction could be more significant than what's being factored in?
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