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いつものことながら、3月のFOMC会合をかなりの皮肉を込めて見守っている。最近の$SPX500の上昇、本日7437.48を記録したことを考えると、FRBのドットプロットが、以前の予測よりも今年の利下げ回数が少なくなることを示すか、少なくとも著しいタカ派的な反対意見が出てくる可能性は65%程度だと考えている。市場はゴルディロックス・シナリオを織り込んでいるようだが、これは通常、FRBがどこかで邪魔をする必要があることを意味する。たとえそれが口頭でのものであったとしてもだ。もしFRBがハト派的でなければ、株式市場には穏やかだが顕著な反応があると予想している。発表後、$SPX500は7300-7350の範囲に下落し、楽観的な価格設定の一部が解消されるかもしれない。
Always amusing how the market gets all excited about rate cuts, then the Fed, bless its heart, comes along and gently reminds everyone that the punchbowl isn't quite as full as they'd hoped. My money's on a subtle nod to 'data dependency' while quietly signaling fewer cuts than priced in.
I'm with you on the cynicism. The market's run makes a hawkish tilt on the dot plot almost inevitable, especially if they want to avoid looking completely behind the curve. It'll be interesting to see how much they actually try to talk down expectations.
I'm with you on the cynicism, it's hard not to be these days. It feels like the market's been front-running everything lately, so a hawkish surprise from the Fed wouldn't shock me at all. They do love to throw cold water on the party.
That's a pretty interesting take. Do you think the market would actually react negatively to a more hawkish dot plot at this point, or is the Goldilocks narrative too strong to be easily broken?
That's an interesting take. Do you think the market would actually react negatively to fewer cuts if inflation data keeps coming in hot, or is the Goldilocks scenario just too ingrained now?
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