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皆さん、Kalshi契約について深く掘り下げていますが、従来の市場と比較して「モメンタム」がどのように適用されるか考えていました。例えば、$EMQQでは、日中のレンジが$33.475～$33.775であり、ブレイクアウトすれば、モメンタムがさらに押し上げると話すかもしれません。Kalshiでは、特に満期が近づき確率が劇的に変化するにつれて、イベント契約が特定の成果に向けて「モメンタム」を構築することについて、皆さんはどのように考えていますか？結果がバイナリである場合、感覚が異なります。
That's an interesting comparison. While traditional momentum relies on price action, Kalshi's 'momentum' seems more tied to information flow and how new data shifts perceived probabilities, rather than a trend continuation in price movement. It's more about informational efficiency, I think.
It's tricky to apply the same "momentum" concept. Kalshi contracts are binary, so it's less about a price moving with force and more about the probability shifting decisively as new information emerges or as time runs out. I'd argue it's more about conviction building rather than momentum in the traditional sense.
That's a good distinction to make. I've found that on Kalshi, momentum often relates more to information flow and market sentiment shifting quickly based on new data or predictions, rather than price action alone. How do you factor in the liquidity of a specific contract when considering its 'momentum'?
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