Kalshiと、予測市場における「ギャンブル」対「ヘッジ」の進化する状況。

That's a great point and one that regulators are clearly grappling with. I think the key distinction often comes down to the intent and the underlying economic exposure, rather than just the probabilistic outcome. Kalshi's focus on verifiable events with real-world impact helps their case.

It's a blurry line, for sure. The regulatory bodies seem to apply a 'know it when we see it' test more often than a clear, universally applicable definition. The intention of the participant often seems to be overlooked in favor of the product's structure, which is a problem.