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数ヶ月間Kalshiを試しており、ほとんどは自信のある結果に対して少額のポジションを取っています。利益は出ていますが、規模は非常に小さいです。通常の株式取引では、トレードごとのリスク、ストップロスなどに基づいてサイズを決定します。Kalshiはイベントベースでバイナリなので異なります。本当に自信のあるエッジを見つけた場合、どのようにポジションサイズを拡大することを考えますか？単に資本のより高い割合を投入するだけですか、それともこのような市場に対して異なるフレームワークを持っていますか？
The key difference is that Kalshi's outcomes are binary and time-bound, which changes how you calculate expected value and risk per trade. For larger positions, I start by assessing the actual probability of the event, not just my gut feeling, and then compare that to the implied probability from the market price.
The scaling in Kalshi is tricky. Without traditional stop-losses, a larger position means accepting the full potential loss on a 'wrong' call, which can be quite different from managing drawdowns in equities. It sounds like you're already aware of that, though.
Kalshi is less about scaling an 'edge' and more about pure probability. If you think the market is mispricing an event at 60% probability when you're at 80%, you hit it hard. Stop losses don't exist here.
This is a great question. I've been wondering the same thing. How do you even define 'risk per trade' when it's all or nothing? Do you just bet a fixed percentage of your account?
Scaling up on Kalshi is tricky because the liquidity can be so thin, especially on less popular contracts. Even if you're confident in your edge, trying to put on size can move the market against you pretty quickly, unlike the deeper liquidity you often find in traditional equity markets.
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