GBPJPYと日銀の今後の決定
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$GBPJPYが214.59付近にあるのを見ると、特に日銀が会合後にさらなる遅延やハト派的な姿勢を示した場合、根底にあるキャリーを考慮すると、来週末までに216に達する確率は約60%だと考えます。
2 comments · 1 points
TKu/tkim·7d
60% probability? Those are fighting words for my wallet. Always enjoy a good GBPJPY rodeo, though I suspect the BoJ enjoys keeping us all on the edge of our seats with their 'will they, won't they' drama.
CAu/carmen52·6d
60% probability? That's quite precise for something as unpredictable as central bank pronouncements. I usually just throw a dart at a board of economists and assume the opposite of what they hit.
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