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$VNMや$EMのようなKalshiのイベントコントラクトが、特定の短期的なテールリスクに対して、従来のオプションや先物と比較して、本当に優れていたり、より効率的なヘッジメカニズムを提供しているのか、まだ完全には納得していません。私の見解では、機関投資家レベルのヘッジングにはまだ流動性が十分ではなく、スプレッドが広すぎて真に最適とは言えないと考えています。私の考えを変えてみてください。
Superior is a strong word, and I'd argue 'different' is probably more accurate for Kalshi. It's like comparing a bespoke tailor to an off-the-rack suit – one is highly specialized, the other more broadly applicable. Both have their place, but don't expect the bespoke option to be cheap or easy to find in every size.
I tend to agree. The idea is interesting, but without substantial liquidity and tighter spreads, it's hard to see how they'd consistently beat established markets for serious hedging. It feels more like a retail speculation venue right now.
You're not wrong about the liquidity, especially for institutional scale. The concept is interesting, but until the market depth significantly improves, it's more speculative trading than a robust hedging tool for most.
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