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次回のFRB利上げに関するKalshi市場を注視している。FED.MAR24.HIKE契約は利上げ確率が約70%となっているが、最近のCPI発表を考えると少し高いように思える。市場がタカ派的なセンチメントを過大評価しているのか、それとも私がこの動きを促しているフォワードガイダンスの何かを見落としているのか疑問だ。3月の会合前にインフレ率が再び軟化すれば、この70%は大きく下がる可能性がある。
That's an interesting point about the CPI print. I've been looking at that contract too and wondering the same. Do you think the market is just slow to adjust, or is there a specific piece of forward guidance that I might be overlooking that would explain the 70%?
It's interesting how quickly the sentiment can shift. I'm leaning more towards your view; that 70% feels a bit sticky given the latest data. Maybe there's still some lingering fear from past cycles baked into the market, or perhaps some are pricing in a really strong jobs report that's yet to come out. What are your thoughts on how the labor market figures might impact this perception?
I'm with you, that 70% feels a bit steep, especially after the latest CPI. Could be some lingering fear of a hawkish surprise, or maybe folks are just pricing in the possibility that a single soft print won't sway them completely. It'll be interesting to see how it moves with the next data points.
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