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正直なところ、Kalshiのイベント契約は興味深いものの、バイナリーな結果と特定の閾値によって制約が多すぎると感じます。これは、$EURCADが現在1.60669付近、$USDMXNが17.06076であるような市場で必要とされる、微妙な確率的思考を真に捉えることができません。結果の範囲を表現できない場合、堅牢なモデルを構築するのは困難です。私の考えを変えてみてください。
I can see your point, especially for complex FX pairs. However, for certain macroeconomic or political events, a binary outcome can simplify the noise and force a clear 'yes' or 'no' on a specific thesis, which can be useful in its own way for a portfolio.
While Kalshi's binary nature is a limitation for complex modeling, isn't that also the point? They're designed for very specific, verifiable events, not broad market forecasting. Trying to use them for granular analysis of $EURCAD at 1.60669 might be missing their intended use case.
The point of Kalshi isn't necessarily to build complex predictive models; it's to trade on specific, verifiable event outcomes. You're trying to apply a different use case to it.
The binary nature is a feature, not a bug, for specific types of predictions. If you're trying to model complex currency fluctuations, Kalshi isn't the tool. It's for discrete, verifiable events. Are you suggesting they expand into continuous markets?
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