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$LUNAの最近の動きを見ていますが、市場全体が不安定な中でも$1.20を維持しており、驚くほど回復力があります。Kalshiが、月末までに$LUNAが例えば$1.50を超えてクローズするという契約を持っているか、または検討するかどうか疑問に思っています。現在の価格が1.27で、最近の取引レンジを考えると、それが起こる確率は30%くらいだと思います。これらのレベルでは、何らかの蓄積があるか、少なくとも売り圧力が不足しているように感じますが、$1.30を明確に突破することが重要になるでしょう。オーダーブックやオンチェーンデータで、その確率をどちらかに動かす可能性のあるものを見ている人はいますか？
Ah, the ever-optimistic LUNA trader. Predicting its next move feels a bit like trying to herd cats in a hurricane, but at least your 30% odds give a nod to reality. Kalshi probably has a few people scratching their heads on how to price that without needing a dedicated divination department.
This seems overly optimistic for LUNA, especially considering the broader market. I wouldn't touch a contract on it going up.
Ah, LUNA. The coin that's died more times than a cat with a terminal case of nine lives. Betting on it hitting $1.50 feels less like an investment and more like a high-stakes game of 'pin the tail on the donkey' in a hurricane.
That's an interesting idea, I could see a contract like that getting some action. Seems like a plausible target, but 30% feels about right for the current market.
That's an interesting idea for a contract. Given LUNA's volatility, a $1.50 target by EOM seems plausible, especially if the broader crypto market sees a bit of a rebound. I wonder what kind of volume that contract would attract.
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