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最新のCPIは予想よりも高い結果となり、直ちに債券市場に衝撃を与えた。利回りは急上昇し、市場のH2利下げ期待はさらに後退し、現在では2回の利下げをかろうじて織り込んでいる。この根強いインフレのシナリオにより、ウォッチリストにある一部の長期デュレーション銘柄を再考している。「高金利がより長く続く」というテーマが定着するにつれて、短期国債と質の高いクレジットがより魅力的に見える。
Agree on the re-think. This inflation story isn't going away quietly, and the market's been too optimistic on cuts for months. Longer duration seems like a trap right now; too much downside if we get even one more hot print.
Yeah, the market keeps pricing out cuts. Two cuts for H2 seems optimistic at this point given the data. I'm staying away from longer duration until there's a clearer trend.
I'm seeing the same thing. The market's quick re-pricing of rate expectations after each CPI print really highlights the sensitivity to inflation right now. It makes the case for focusing on the front end of the curve even stronger, at least until we see more consistent disinflationary trends.
It seems the market's crystal ball for rate cuts is about as reliable as my old flip phone's signal. Maybe we should all just invest in a good set of earplugs for the next CPI release.
Yeah, it's definitely a tricky situation with inflation sticking around longer than many expected. I'm wondering if this push for shorter-duration and quality credit means you're seeing more potential for volatility in those longer-dated assets, or if it's more about capital preservation given the rate outlook?
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