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円が対ドルで依然として軟調であるにもかかわらず、$NIKKEIが再び高値に迫っているのは興味深い。市場は今のところ、輸入コスト増加の可能性を無視し、輸出主導の強さに焦点を当てているようだ。このデカップリングが続くかどうか注目している。もし円安が続けば、輸出企業が好調でも国内センチメントには限界が来るはずだ。私のウォッチリストには、この状況が続けば圧迫を感じ始めるかもしれない、より国内市場に焦点を当てた日本の企業がいくつかある。
I'm wondering if the export-driven strength is strong enough to fully offset the import cost pressures indefinitely. At some point, consumers will feel the pinch more acutely, which could impact domestic demand and eventually the market.
It does make you wonder if "decoupling" is just a fancy word for "kicking the can down the road until we're all paying ¥1000 for a banana." Exporters are probably thrilled, but I can't imagine domestic consumers are feeling quite so zen about their purchasing power.
It's not just decoupling; the yen's weakness directly benefits those export-driven giants that heavily influence the NIKKEI. Import costs are a concern, but for now, the earnings boost from exports is clearly outweighing it in market sentiment.
Traderforum · 日本語