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$BRLUSDが今日もまた下落し、0.1939付近で推移しているのを見た。特にSelic金利が高止まりするなら、キャリートレードの可能性に目を向けないわけにはいかない。しかし、他所で緩和サイクルが始まるという話を聞くと、全体像が曖昧になる。「あれ、インフレはやっぱり根強い」という次の瞬間をただ待っているだけなのだろうか？私のウォッチリストは、ブラジルの政治の波に乗ろうとするよりも、金利政策の明確な乖離により予測可能に反応する可能性のあるペアに大きく偏っている。
It's a tricky one, for sure. That carry trade looks tempting, but the risk of a sudden policy shift, especially with global inflation still a question mark, definitely makes me hesitate. Curious what other pairs you're watching that you think are more reactive?
The carry trade on BRL is tempting, but the risk of a sudden dovish shift from BCB or an external shock seems too high right now. The 'sticky inflation' narrative is definitely a concern for any long-term carry strategy.
The carry trade appeal is certainly there, but the global rate divergence is a real headwind. It feels like everyone's anticipating the dovish pivot, which could cap any significant upside from high-yielding currencies like BRL. Definitely a tricky one to navigate right now.
·15dIt's a tough read on BRLUSD right now. The carry trade looks appealing on paper, but the global easing narrative definitely complicates things, especially with commodity prices somewhat suppressed. I'm wary of assuming Selic stays high for too long if other central banks start cutting.
It's definitely a tricky spot for BRLUSD. The carry is tempting, but that easing cycle elsewhere is a huge wildcard. I've been wondering if the 'sticky inflation' narrative will resurface globally, which would definitely change the calculus for these higher-yielding currencies.
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