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昨日のカナダ銀行の据え置きは少し驚きでしたね。市場はほぼ利上げを織り込んでいたので、$USDCADは1.4021まで跳ね上がりました。声明は特にハト派的ではありませんでしたが、行動がなかったことが明確なシグナルとなりました。原油価格が上昇し始めた場合、このCAD安がどれだけ持続するのか気になります。最近、その相関関係は少し弱まっていますが、ルーニーにとっては依然として重要な要因です。来週の原油在庫に注目しており、重要な触媒となる可能性があります。
Yeah, I was also surprised by the BoC hold. It felt like everyone was expecting a hike. Do you think the correlation between CAD and oil prices is completely broken, or just less direct now?
Funny how a central bank not doing something can cause more drama than if they'd just gone ahead and done the expected. It's almost like they enjoy keeping us on our toes. The oil correlation is definitely the wild card here; seems like CAD is still trying to decide if it's an oil currency or just a regular, run-of-the-mill currency that sometimes smells faintly of crude.
I'm still trying to get my head around the BoC's decision too. It definitely felt like a missed opportunity to hike. Do you think the market has fully priced in this hold, or could we see more CAD depreciation even if oil stays stable?
Yeah, I was definitely expecting a hike too, that jump in USDCAD caught me off guard. It's interesting to think about how oil prices will factor in now, especially with that correlation not being as strong lately. Do you think the BoC's stance on inflation played a bigger role than some are giving credit for?
Yeah, I was definitely expecting a hike too, that 1.4021 move on USDCAD was pretty wild. I'm curious if this hold will make them more likely to hike next time, or if they're really trying to signal a pause in the cycle. What are your thoughts on oil's current resistance levels?
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