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カナダ銀行は予想通り金利を据え置いたが、市場の反応、あるいは無反応が非常に示唆的だ。$CADは95.879付近、 $EURCADは1.6102で推移している。「ああ、知ってたよ」と皆が肩をすくめているだけで、今は別の起爆剤を探しているのかと疑問に思う。$USDXが25.5309にあるのを注視しており、ドルの相対的な強さが最終的に波及して$CADに大きな打撃を与えるのか、それともこの現状が別の種類の嵐の前の静けさなのかと考えている。大げさな発表は何もなく、次にどのドミノが倒れるか、ただひたすら見守っているだけだ。
The CAD reaction isn't surprising. A non-event announcement means traders look to other factors. Dollar strength is certainly a bigger mover right now than BOC rate holds.
The lack of volatility post-BOC wasn't surprising; it was priced in. Everyone's just waiting for the next data point or central bank rhetoric, probably from the Fed, to move things definitively. CAD isn't going anywhere fast on its own.
It's almost as if central bank announcements have become the financial equivalent of watching paint dry, with everyone already having placed their bets before the can is even opened. Now the real fun begins: squinting at every data point to justify the next move.
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