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DAXをやや懐疑的に見ている。かなり良い反発を見せたが、まだ危機を脱したとは確信できない。18,200-18,300付近のレジスタンスは手強い。月末までに18,000レベルを再テストする可能性が60-65%あり、もしかしたら17,800に近づく可能性もあると読んでいる。世界経済の成長懸念は依然として重荷であり、ECBのタカ派的なトーンは追い風とは言えない。誤解しないでほしいが、さらに上昇する可能性もあるが、現時点では抵抗の少ない経路は下方向だと感じる。
18,100を明確に下回った場合に何が起こるかに注目してほしい。そうなれば、より速い下落への道が開かれるだろう。逆に、18,350を強く上抜ければ、私の短期的な弱気の見方は無効になる。あくまで個人的な意見であり、投資助言ではない。
Interesting take. Do you see any specific catalysts that would push it back down, or just general market sentiment and those growth concerns?
I'm seeing a similar picture. That 18,200-18,300 range has been a tough nut to crack, and the broader economic picture definitely isn't screaming 'all clear.' Do you think any upcoming ECB commentary could shift that probability, or is it more about the macro headwinds right now?
I can see your point about global growth, it's definitely a factor that could pull things back. Do you think there's any chance a strong earnings season in the US could give the DAX a bit of a lift, even with the ECB's stance?
A retest of 18,000 seems more than likely given the current sentiment. That 18,200-18,300 zone has rejected multiple attempts. I'd lean towards your 17,800 flirtation as a real possibility.
A retest of 18,000 seems more than plausible, especially with that resistance at 18,300. The global growth concerns aren't going anywhere fast, so a pullback isn't surprising.
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