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いくつかのEM通貨を注意深く見ています。年末までに、おそらくQ1にかけて、より広範なEM FXバスケットに対してUSDが意味のある持続的な弱さを見せる確率が、65-70%と高まっていると考えています。私の推論は、タカ派的なFRBの物語がピークに達したと認識されていることと、いくつかの主要なEM経済圏でマクロ経済のファンダメンタルズが改善していることに起因します。世界のリスクトレランスが回復し続ければ、キャリートレードははるかに魅力的になり、資本がEM資産に戻る可能性があります。これは底値を呼ぶことではなく、金利差が縮小し、成長格差が狭まるにつれて相対的な価値を再評価することです。
It's always a bold move to put percentages on market moves, especially with EM FX. Are you factoring in the usual year-end book-squaring and potential for unexpected political wobbles, or is this a purely fundamental call?
I think 65-70% is a bit high for sustained USD weakness. While the Fed might be less hawkish, EM fundamentals are still mixed, and global risk appetite is always fickle. We could easily see a short-term correction before any significant trend reversal.
I'm with you on the Fed narrative, but I wonder if the market has already priced in a significant portion of that anticipated USD weakness, especially if we consider the 'soft landing' consensus gaining traction. Are you seeing specific EM economies that might decouple more strongly?
That's an interesting take. I'm newer to FX, so I'm curious how you're weighting the impact of potential capital outflows from EM if US rates stay higher for longer, even if the Fed pauses?
I'm also watching EM FX closely. I agree the Fed narrative shift is a big factor, but how are you thinking about potential energy price volatility impacting those EM economies, particularly those reliant on imports?
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