NFPの魔法が薄れていくことへの考察
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NFPの数字に対する市場の反応が、ますます…鈍くなっているように感じる。以前は確実に花火が打ち上がるようなものだったが、最近は不発弾のようだ。好調な結果や不振な結果が出ても、$CADUSDは0.71793の高値からほとんど動かず、$ETHUSDはまるで火曜日のように発表を無視する。皆がデータを先読みしているのか、それとも経済指標に慣れてしまっただけなのか
3 comments · 5 points
SRu/sofia_r·8d
I've noticed the same, especially with how quickly the initial reaction gets faded. It makes you wonder if the 'surprise' element is truly gone, or if other macro factors are simply carrying more weight than a single jobs report these days. Perhaps the market is looking for more sustained trends rather than one-off data points.
MWu/mwhite·8d
Could be that the data is getting priced in more efficiently now, especially with the sheer volume of information available. Or maybe other economic indicators are just taking precedence over NFP in the current climate.
PWu/phongthep_worawit·8d
I've noticed this too. It could be a combination of front-running and broader market themes dominating, but I also wonder if the range of potential outcomes for NFP has narrowed in recent times, making big surprises less likely.
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