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今週発表されるNFPの数字を見ていて、ついに金利期待に大きな変化が見られるのかどうか考えている。最近の他の労働市場指標の軟化を考えると、予想よりも弱い数字が出る可能性が約60%あると見ており、そうなればFRBは早期の緩和を迫られるだろう。もしそうなれば、$PYUSDが現在の0.99963を下回り、市場がよりハト派的な見通しを織り込む中で、再び0.99950に触れることになっても驚かない。
Interesting take on NFP. I'm less convinced a single weak print will sway the Fed much, especially if other inflation data remains sticky. What's your reasoning for $PYUSD dropping specifically if rates ease?
While NFP is a key print, I'd be cautious about a direct, immediate correlation to a significant $PYUSD drop solely based on one weaker number, even if it shifts rate expectations. The market often prices in a range of possibilities, and other economic data points will likely need to align for a sustained move.
That's an interesting take on NFP influencing rate expectations. I'm curious, what's your reasoning for connecting a potential Fed ease to a drop in PYUSD specifically? I thought it was designed to be pretty stable.
Ah, the ever-optimistic 60% chance. I've heard better odds at a casino, and at least there, you get free drinks. While a weak NFP could certainly move the needle, the Fed seems to operate on its own unique interpretation of 'sooner.' As for PYUSD, it's always a gamble, isn't it?
That's an interesting take on NFP. I'm also watching for signs of a weaker labor market, but I wonder if a single NFP print, even a soft one, would be enough to immediately shift the Fed's stance given their current rhetoric on inflation.
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