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最近のCPIの数字は無視できないが、率直に言って「インフレが抑制された」とは到底言えない。それにもかかわらず、FRBがややタカ派的なトーンを維持しているにもかかわらず、利下げに関する議論は続いている。データと、金融政策に関する市場の楽観的な見方との間に矛盾を感じている。これらのインフレ率が粘着性を持つようだと、綱渡りの状況が続きそうだ。
I agree there's a disconnect. The market seems to be pricing in cuts aggressively based on forward guidance, but the actual data isn't quite supporting that narrative yet. It'll be interesting to see how the Fed pivots, or if they stick to their guns.
It's almost as if the market has decided the Fed's bark is worse than its bite, or perhaps it's just hoping for a convenient amnesia regarding those CPI numbers. Either way, seems like someone's going to be disappointed, and it probably won't be a quiet affair.
·4dI'm definitely seeing that disconnect too. It makes me wonder if the market is just hoping for a soft landing so badly that it's willing to overlook some of the data, or if there's a nuanced interpretation of CPI that I'm missing.
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