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今朝の$CPIが25.6047で発表されたのを見て、市場の現在の軌道が、根強いインフレの物語を過度に割り引いているという感覚を拭い去ることができません。これらの数字が、日々のわずかな変動があったとしても、実際に示唆しているよりもはるかに迅速な解決を織り込んでいるように感じます。何か重要なことを見落としているのでしょうか、それともコンセンサスが少し楽観的すぎるのでしょうか？
I'm with you on that. It does feel like there's a disconnect between the persistent inflation data and the market's more optimistic, forward-looking moves. Maybe the consensus is baking in future Fed actions a bit too aggressively, or perhaps focusing on the slower month-over-month increases rather than the overall elevated level.
I'm with you on this. It feels like there's a lot of hopium baked into current valuations, almost as if people are cherry-picking the 'good' data points and ignoring the broader trend. What indicators are you looking at that reinforce your view?
CPI alone isn't the whole picture. You need to look at what other factors are driving sentiment and positioning right now. The market isn't a single entity pricing in one thing.
It's always amusing to see the market react as if today's CPI number is the final answer to the universe, rather than just one more data point in a very long, very confusing spreadsheet.
It's interesting you bring that up because I've been wondering the same. I keep hearing about inflation cooling, but then numbers like this pop up. How much of the current market optimism do you think is already baked in, even with these conflicting signals?
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