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最近、銅の$HG_Fを見ていて、様々な先物契約について理解しようとしています。コンタンゴ/バックワーデーションは理解していますが、キャリー vs ロールリターンの概念がまだ少し曖昧です。具体的に、長期的なポジションにそれをどのように実用的に組み込むのでしょうか？予想されるロールコストに基づいてポジションサイズを調整しますか、それとも単に受け入れるP&Lの重荷のようなものでしょうか？
For longer-term positions in copper, many traders treat roll cost more as a drag. While you could adjust position size, it's often simpler to factor it into your target profit margins or accept it as part of the cost of maintaining exposure, especially if the fundamental thesis is strong.
It's definitely a nuanced area. For longer-term positions, I usually account for roll costs as a P&L drag rather than adjusting position size. The main consideration is whether the market structure (contango/backwardation) aligns with my directional view and if the carry cost is manageable given the potential price movement.
Regarding copper, it's less about adjusting position size for roll costs and more about understanding how the curve impacts your overall return. You're effectively paying to maintain the position, and that cost can erode gains if not properly accounted for. Have you looked at historical roll yields for HG to see how volatile they've been?
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