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DAXを注視している。現在24671.22付近。最近の売り圧力と日中安値24547.7を考慮すると、金曜日の終値までに24500に到達する確率は約65%と見ている。市場は安値切り上げを形成しているように見え、世界的なセンチメントがリスクオフのままであれば、大きなポジティブなカタリストが出現しない限り、大幅な反発の前にその水準を再テストする可能性はかなり高いと感じる。
65% is a pretty precise figure given the current market volatility. What specific indicators are you seeing that give such a strong conviction for that target by Friday?
While 24500 is certainly in play given the current market structure, I wouldn't call it a 65% certainty. The DAX has shown resilience around those lows before. What's your reasoning for that specific probability?
I can definitely see that happening. The selling pressure has been pretty consistent lately, and a retest of 24500 by Friday seems very plausible given the current sentiment. What's your take on what would constitute a "significant bounce" from there?
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