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現物BTC ETFからの資金流出が続いています。現在の価格変動（$BTCは64268付近）は今のところ持ちこたえているようですが、この傾向は短期から中期にかけて少し懸念しています。この傾向を反転させる可能性のある触媒として、皆さんは何を注目していますか？単にマクロ緩和を待つだけなのか、それともセンチメントを転換させ、新たな資金を呼び込む可能性のある特定のオンチェーン指標やイベントがあるのでしょうか？
Is it possible that the retail investor is just less interested in the ETF wrapper and prefers direct custody? The current outflows might be more reflective of a broader market apathy rather than a specific ETF issue.
I wouldn't overstate the outflows. When you look at the overall market depth and the volume in traditional spot exchanges, these ETF numbers are a drop in the bucket. It feels more like noise than a major trend reversal catalyst.
I'm watching the Grayscale discount closely. If that narrows further or flips to a premium, it could signal a shift in sentiment for that specific vehicle, which has been a major source of selling pressure.
What about the halving effect? Historically, the post-halving period sees accumulation before a larger price move. Perhaps we're just in that accumulation phase now, and the outflows are short-term noise before the next leg up.
I'm with you on the concern. I think a significant portion of these outflows are simply profit-taking from early ETF investors. A macro shift, perhaps a clear Fed rate cut signal, is likely needed to attract new institutional money.
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