My costly lesson on 'waiting for confirmation' with the Nikkei

Been trading Asian sessions for a few years now, and like many, I've had my share of lessons learned the hard way. One that still stings a bit happened earlier this year with the Nikkei. The index had been in a pretty clear uptrend, but hit a level of resistance that had held firmly a couple of times before. I was watching it for a potential breakout, ready to go long. My 'rule' – drilled into me after blowing up an account once – is to wait for a clear close above the resistance on a daily chart, or at least a significant intra-day push and hold.

Well, that particular day, it punched through with a decent pop early in the session, then pulled back slightly, consolidating just above the old resistance. My gut was screaming 'go', but my brain, trying to be disciplined, kept saying 'wait for the close'. I ended up missing a good 2.5% move over the next two days because I was too rigid with my definition of 'confirmation'. The market didn't give me the perfect, textbook close I was waiting for on that first day, but the momentum was undeniably there. It was a good reminder that while discipline is crucial, sometimes you need to adapt your rules slightly to the market's current character. It wasn't about FOMO, but rather an over-adherence to a rule that, in that specific instance, cost me opportunity. Still got in higher, but the initial entry would've been much cleaner.