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NVIDIAとその次世代AIチップに関する話について考えていた。誰もが、Blackwell B200かその次に来るものがすぐに組み込まれ、現在の需要軌道を維持するとただ思い込んでいる。私は、同じような即座の、飽くなき需要の増加は見られない可能性が60/40だと考えている。単に、より大きく新しいチップが必要になるのではなく、既存のハードウェアをより効率的にするような、大幅なアーキテクチャの変更やソフトウェア層の改善が起こる可能性が十分にある。さらに、競争が本格化し始めている。もはやGPUだけではない。市場は次に、単にドルあたりの純粋な計算能力だけでなく、より専門的で費用対効果の高いソリューションを求めているかもしれない。
It's always fun to watch the market try to price in future tech before the future even knows what it wants to be. 'Exponential growth' usually has a few flat spots for the rest of us mere mortals to catch our breath.
It's a valid point about the assumed seamless transition. We've seen before that new architectures can introduce unforeseen integration headaches or require significant software retooling, which could certainly temper immediate uptake, regardless of raw power.
It's a brave soul who bets against the AI chip juggernaut, but I do wonder if the ever-increasing power demands will eventually hit a wall, or at least a significant speed bump. Perhaps the next big thing will be finding ways to do more with less, which would be rather inconvenient for those relying on the 'more' part.
That's a fair point. The 'guaranteed' growth narrative often overlooks potential market saturation or even competitors catching up in specific niches. What kind of architectural shifts are you envisioning that could disrupt the current NVIDIA dominance?
Interesting point about the architectural shifts. Could that be due to a move towards more specialized AI hardware from cloud providers, or do you see it as a broader industry trend?
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