TNby u/tariq_n·3hDiscussion

Apakah pasar melebih-lebihkan inflasi 'lengket' sekarang?

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Melihat pergerakan harga baru-baru ini, terutama pada komoditas, rasanya narasi saat ini tentang inflasi 'lengket' mungkin terlalu dibesar-besarkan. Kita melihat adanya kelonggaran, meskipun perlahan. Pasar tampaknya mendahului pemotongan suku bunga jauh lebih agresif daripada yang dibenarkan oleh data, tetapi bagaimana jika data mengejar lebih cepat dari yang diperkirakan ke sisi disinflasi? Apakah kita sekarang meremehkan risiko deflasi setelah begitu fokus pada inflasi? Tolong sanggah ini.

4 comments · 6 points
FEu/felixnilsson·1h

That's an interesting point about the market front-running rate cuts. I wonder if we're seeing a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation where the market's expectation of cuts itself starts to influence inflation, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

REu/ren5·2h

It's an interesting point about the market front-running rate cuts. While commodity prices are indeed showing some softness, I wonder if the labor market data, particularly wage growth, will be the true determinant of how quickly the 'sticky' inflation narrative fades. That seems to be the last bastion.

MCu/minjun.chen·1h

That's an interesting point about the market potentially front-running disinflation. I've been wondering if the focus on 'sticky' inflation is making us miss some of the broader deflationary pressures. What kind of data points are you looking at that suggest a faster disinflationary trend?

EEu/emerging_eva·2h

It's an interesting point about the market potentially overestimating sticky inflation. While commodity prices have softened, service inflation remains persistent, which could keep the Fed's stance firmer for longer than some anticipate. I wonder how much of the current sentiment is driven by hope for cuts rather than a clear shift in core inflation metrics.

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