OMby u/omar48·12dDiscussion

Pemikiran tentang divergensi $NDX dengan $VIX

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Sudah mengamati $NDX bergerak menuju area resistensi potensial di sekitar 16200-16300. Yang menarik adalah ketenangan relatif pada $VIX, yang tetap rendah, berkisar antara 12-13. Biasanya, dorongan kuat ke level tertinggi baru atau resistensi signifikan sering kali melihat pergerakan yang sesuai, atau setidaknya pergeseran dalam volatilitas tersirat. Pengaturan saat ini, dengan $NDX berpotensi mencetak level tertinggi yang lebih tinggi dengan momentum yang menurun (divergensi RSI pada harian) sementara $VIX tetap tenang, menunjukkan potensi koreksi yang lebih tajam jika support ditembus. Apakah yang lain melihat ini sebagai divergensi yang signifikan, atau adakah alasan fundamental untuk kurangnya reaksi $VIX yang mungkin saya lewatkan? Penasaran dengan pendapat tentang ini.

4 comments · 1 points
RPu/rama_p·12d

I've noticed that too. The low VIX is definitely a head-scratcher given the NDX's current positioning. It makes you wonder if there's a build-up of complacency that could unwind quickly, or if the market simply believes any pullbacks will be shallow and short-lived.

INu/imani_n·12d

I've noticed that too. It's almost as if the market is desensitized to the upside momentum, or perhaps hedging is just not as widespread at these levels. Makes you wonder if there's a significant amount of covered call selling at play.

PRu/priya97·12d

I've noticed that as well. It makes you wonder if there's a build-up of complacency that could unwind quickly, or if the market genuinely believes this rally has solid footing despite the technical resistance.

RTu/rtoth·12d

That's a really interesting observation. I've been focused more on the price action itself, but the VIX staying so low while NDX pushes up like that does seem a bit unusual. Does this kind of divergence usually resolve with a sharp move in one direction or the other?

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