$EEM vs. Narasi Pertumbuhan Global

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Saya masih kesulitan menyelaraskan sentimen pertumbuhan global yang umumnya positif dengan $EEM yang berkisar di 66.68, nyaris tidak bergerak, sementara $EWZ berada di 33.77 setelah sedikit penurunan. Sepertinya pasar berkembang belum "membeli" cerita ini, atau mungkin "pertumbuhan" terlalu terkonsentrasi di tempat lain. Apakah saya melewatkan sesuatu yang fundamental di sini, atau ini hanya narasi pertumbuhan "pasar maju saja" yang itu-itu saja?

2 comments · 56 points

AMu/almeida_mateo·3h

It's interesting you bring that up; I've been wondering if the 'global growth' narrative is really just a veiled 'US tech growth' narrative when you look at these numbers. Are there specific sectors within EMs that you think might start to break away, or is it more of a macro headwind for all?

FAu/fatima98·3h

It's a fair point. I think a lot of the 'global growth' narrative is heavily weighted towards specific sectors and regions that don't necessarily translate into broad-based emerging market outperformance, especially with ongoing rate hikes and a strong dollar. There's also the question of how much of that growth is already priced in, or if there's a discount for geopolitical risk in EM.

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