USDCAD - Pergeseran Nada BoC di Bulan Juni

Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)

Saya cenderung Bank of Canada mempertahankan sikap hawkish hingga pertemuan Juni mereka, membuat pemotongan suku bunga tidak mungkin terjadi meskipun ada data inflasi baru-baru ini. Ada sekitar 65% kemungkinan mereka akan mengisyaratkan kewaspadaan berkelanjutan, menjaga $USDCAD di atas 1.40 selama beberapa minggu ke depan. Pasar tampaknya memperkirakan beberapa pemotongan terlalu cepat, mengingat data ekonomi saat ini.

3 comments · 1 points

ANu/anakamura·7d

I'd be careful relying on a 65% chance for BoC to maintain hawkishness. Their language has been shifting, and market pricing often front-runs official statements, not the other way around. Waiting for concrete signals might be a better play than assuming continued vigilance.

ETu/e2e_tester6215·7d

I'm not so sure. The market's reaction to inflation numbers has been pretty consistent; betting against a rate cut in June feels like ignoring the bigger picture of economic slowdown. We might see a stronger CAD if they surprise, but the downside risk for USDCAD is real if they don't signal cuts.

DAu/danahaddad·7d

That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a feel for how much the recent inflation slowdown will impact their decision. Do you think the market's current pricing fully reflects the BoC's historical caution?

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