EURCAD: Odds of testing 1.6150 by week's end?

Considering the recent range and broader market sentiment, I'd put the probability of $EURCAD touching 1.6150 by Friday's close at around 35-40%. We've seen a couple of probes higher, and while the momentum isn't screaming 'breakout,' a dovish BOC surprise or continued weak CAD data could certainly provide the necessary push. Conversely, a strong rebound in oil or better-than-expected Canadian employment could easily keep it capped below there, potentially even retesting the 1.6050 area. My sense is that the upside has limited conviction for now.