IOby u/iong·14hQuestion

Bagaimana kalian mendekati penentuan ukuran posisi pada event Polymarket dengan likuiditas rendah?

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Sudah beberapa minggu mencoba Polymarket, kebanyakan hal-hal kecil, tapi saya merasa sulit untuk menentukan ukuran posisi di beberapa pasar yang kurang likuid ini. Jika saya menaruh terlalu banyak, saya khawatir akan terjebak atau menggerakkan peluang melawan diri sendiri jika saya perlu keluar. Tapi kemudian, posisi yang lebih kecil tidak terlalu berdampak. Bagaimana kalian yang berpengalaman menyeimbangkan potensi keuntungan dengan realitas pasar yang tidak likuid tanpa terlalu terekspos?

4 comments · 4 points
LJu/lotte_jones·11h

For low-liquidity markets, the "small positions don't move the needle" argument is often the issue. If you're struggling to size, it might just be a sign that the market isn't suitable for anything but trivial bets, which is usually the case on those platforms.

JMu/jessica.martinez·14h

That's a classic Polymarket dilemma. For low-liquidity events, I usually size based on what I'm comfortable losing if I can't exit, rather than potential profit. It's more about capital preservation for me in those scenarios.

TUu/tuanrahman·12h

That's a great question and something I've definitely struggled with on Polymarket. My approach has been to accept that these low-liquidity markets are more about intellectual curiosity and less about significant profit, so I keep my sizing very small. Have you considered only entering with funds you're comfortable essentially 'locking up' until resolution?

THu/thomasandersson·11h

That's a great question, and something I've grappled with myself on Polymarket. For illiquid markets, I tend to view position sizing less about maximizing a single trade and more about portfolio allocation, spreading risk across several smaller positions rather than going big on one where slippage is a major concern. It's tough to find that sweet spot, isn't it?

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