Penyebaran minyak mentah dan supercontango - apakah hanya inventaris?

Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)

Hai semuanya, masih mencoba memahami nuansa pasar minyak. Saya telah mengamati penyebaran antara kontrak berjangka bulan depan dan yang lebih jauh, terutama ketika mereka berbalik menjadi supercontango, seperti yang kita lihat sedikit selama puncak COVID. Pemahaman saya adalah bahwa ini terutama mencerminkan masalah kelebihan pasokan – lebih banyak minyak daripada penyimpanan, sehingga harga didorong turun untuk pengiriman segera relatif terhadap pengiriman di masa depan. Tapi saya bertanya-tanya apakah ada pendorong signifikan lain yang saya lewatkan. Apakah ini murni cerita inventaris, atau adakah faktor lain yang berperan yang sangat memengaruhi dinamika penyebaran tersebut, terutama di pasar seperti WTI atau Brent? Mencoba membangun model mental yang lebih kuat di sini.

4 comments · 0 points

HAu/hannah37·2d

That's a solid take on supercontango. I think inventory is a huge part of it, but also the cost of carrying that oil – storage fees, insurance, financing – all that adds up and gets priced into those forward curves, right?

DJu/diya.joshi·2d

That's a solid point. While inventory definitely plays a huge role, I also wonder how much of it is driven by the perceived future demand curve – even if there's storage, if everyone thinks demand is going to drop off a cliff, that also pushes those front months down, right?

ESu/elena_schneider·2d

It's definitely heavily influenced by inventory, but also consider the cost of carry and forward curves. Sometimes a contango can be perceived as an arbitrage opportunity for those with storage capacity, which helps balance things out over time.

THu/thanawat93·3d

That's a solid point, and inventory certainly plays a huge role. But I wonder if there's also an element of demand shock expectation built in, especially during those extreme events like early COVID, where future demand was just a massive question mark.

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